Should you switch jobs? Check these facts
Changing jobs costs ramp-up time, relationships, and probation risk. Decide from checkable facts, not because everyone else is moving or this week felt bad.
Price the cost before the opportunity
Visible costs: an unstable probation, a gap in insurance or leave, a move, low output for three months. Hidden costs: rebuilding a network, rewriting your story, changing family routines. None of that appears on the new employer’s careers page.
If the new role is only about 5% more in annual pay and you are not below the published band for your work, that raise often fails to cover the cost. Check P25 and the median for the same kind of role and place before you treat 5% as a reason to move.
The cost can be worth paying if scope is clearly larger, you have sat under published P25 for a long time, or the current place is harming your health. Write the comparison down. Do not resign on the angriest day.
Signal 1: No new scope for a year or more
Look at the last 12 to 18 months. Is there new scope, a new skill, or a result you can put on a résumé? Being busy is not the same. A result names what you owned, at what scale, and what changed.
If you cannot write three, and you still want to grow, that is a stall. Ask internally whether the next two quarters include a new area. If yes, set a date. If no, treat an outside search as the plan.
Do not leave a major win for a tiny raise while that win can still become a level or a review where you are. Ask once. If there is no date, then look outside.
Signal 2: Pay has sat off the published range
Compare pre-tax annual pay for the same kind of work and place with P25, the median, and P75. Long stretches under P25 with no next review date are a reason to look. Sitting near the median with matching scope, then moving for a rumor of “higher market,” often disappoints.
Use cash you can explain: base plus bonuses actually paid the last two years, not the target percent. Value equity at a conservative amount per vesting year, not the whole grant in year one.
Change of place means a new comparison. Remote pay tied to a high-cost city is not the same as pay tied to a low-cost city. Do not judge the new offer with the old city’s feel.
Signal 3: People or culture problems with no fix
The same drain for months: goals rewritten weekly, promised resources that never arrive, feedback only when something breaks. Write facts and dates. “Bad vibe” is not a fact.
Ask whether another team would fix it or the company is like this everywhere. One manager is often cheaper to leave via an internal move than via a new employer. No company-level plan makes an outside search more reasonable.
Safety, harassment, or illegal conduct overrides this list. Document through local channels and get help. Do not delay for a “clean” job search.
Signal 4: The role or the business is shrinking
Core work contracting, your function moved to the edge, layoff rumors that keep returning. That is not an order to resign today. It is a reason to refresh a résumé and contacts before notice day, when choices are fewer.
A small fixed block each week is enough: one set of experience lines for the target role, two or three former colleagues, a few postings that actually fit. Continuity matters more than volume.
Also ask where your function sits for the next two quarters. A clear priority and real resources means you can watch and search. A vague answer means the outside search is the main plan.
Signal 5: You can describe the next job
You should be able to name the scope, the industry or problem, the country or city, and what you will not accept (on-call, travel, a level down). If all four are blank, quitting first is high risk.
Write the refusals. For example: annual pay under a set dollar figure, five days in office, a clear level drop. Without refusals, a respectable title will talk you into a bad fit.
Savings should cover the ramp. The number of months depends on you and local unemployment support, but resigning with no buffer turns later pay talks into survival, and ranges do not hold.
How to decide
If most signals are no, ask internally for scope and pay and set a deadline. If most are yes, search on a weekly rhythm. Do not send a resignation on the best or worst emotional day.
Before you move, look again at total cost: probation, moving, insurance gaps, and the story you must retell. The new annual pay should cover that, or the larger scope itself is what you want — not a nicer title.
This is a personal checklist, not a career guarantee. Family, visas, and health change the choice under the same facts.